Paper: Crystal: Analyzing Predictive Opinions on the Web

ACL ID D07-1113
Title Crystal: Analyzing Predictive Opinions on the Web
Venue Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing
Session Main Conference
Year 2007

In this paper, we present an election predic- tion system (Crystal) based on web users’ opinions posted on an election prediction website. Given a prediction message, Crys- tal first identifies which party the message predicts to win and then aggregates predic- tion analysis results of a large amount of opinions to project the election results. We collect past election prediction messages from the Web and automatically build a gold standard. We focus on capturing lexi- cal patterns that people frequently use when they express their predictive opinions about a coming election. To predict elec- tion results, we apply SVM-based super- vised learning. To improve performance, we propose a novel technique which gener- alizes n-gram feature patterns. Experimen- tal results show that Crystal sig...