Paper: Reading the Markets: Forecasting Public Opinion of Political Candidates by News Analysis

ACL ID C08-1060
Title Reading the Markets: Forecasting Public Opinion of Political Candidates by News Analysis
Venue International Conference on Computational Linguistics
Session Main Conference
Year 2008
Authors

Media reporting shapes public opinion which can in turn influence events, partic- ularly in political elections, in which can- didates both respond to and shape public perception of their campaigns. We use computational linguistics to automatically predict the impact of news on public per- ception of political candidates. Our sys- tem uses daily newspaper articles to pre- dict shifts in public opinion as reflected in prediction markets. We discuss various types of features designed for this problem. The news system improves market predic- tion over baseline market systems.